- Over the next ten years, open source will extract a toll on the industry in the low double digits, percentage wise, led by vicious price competition
- Price effects are a less important impact of open source adoption than the effect of open source on the entire life-cycle of software invention and innovation
- Despite the proliferation of open source license forms, only three business models are important from an industry and an individual vendor success point of view: the software revenue model, the public collective model, and the service broker model
- Competitive success among vendors’ open source markets will be determined by a different set of core competencies than those required to invent and market a new product
Open Source “gaining enormous momentum”
Good News! Even the IDC reports that there is no-stopping Open Source! Viva Open Source! The open-source software “phenomenon” extends far beyond Linux, and is “gaining enormous momentum”, IDC reports. Following a recent survey of over 5,000 developers in 116 countries, IDC has concluded that open-source software represents “the most significant all-encompassing and long-term trend that the software industry has seen since the early 1980s”. In its research, IDC found the use of open source to be “pervasive”, spanning nearly three-fourths of organizations and hundreds of thousands of projects. The market research firm says it expects that open source will ultimately “play a role in the life-cycle of every major software category, and will fundamentally change the value proposition of packaged software for customers”. The results of the study indicate that open-source software is currently being used by 71 percent of developers worldwide, according to IDC. Additionally, open-source software software is “in production” at 54 percent of the surveyed developers’ organizations. Furthermore, half the surveyed developers said that the use of open-source in their organizations is increasing. IDC offered the following additional observations relating to the proliferation of open-source software:
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